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4/22/26
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This report provided by J.C. Casillas, Managing Director of Research at NAI apital Commercial
Pricing resets and shifting demand are reshaping conditions across Los Angeles, Orange County, the Inland Empire, and Ventura County. Quarter-over-quarter sale price gains signal a market transition as Southern California retail moves into a more stabilized cycle.
Southern California's retail markets are navigating a period of adjustment in early 2026. While vacancy rates remain relatively low compared to historical norms, the region is seeing a cooling in leasing velocity and a shift in net absorption. The market is moving toward a period of normalization where pricing and rents are finding a new equilibrium.
Investors are returning, both institutional and private. Large-scale transactions are significantly lifting sales prices.
The marquee transaction of the quarter was Victoria Gardens, a 1.2 msf, premier lifestyle center in the Inland Empire, that was acquired for $530 mil. Located in Rancho Cucamonga and 98% leased at the time of sale, the transaction included 644k sf of retail building space at an average of $824 per square foot. Brookfield Properties sold the asset to Panattoni, a privately held commercial real estate developer headquartered in Irvine.
According to the buyer, demographics are the primary driver: Victoria Gardens sits in a dense trade area with 2.2 million residents within a 25-minute drive. Rancho Cucamonga’s average household income of $138,000 is 22% higher than the national average, with a 9% projected growth over the next five years.
In Orange County, Seacliff Village sold for $150.8 mil. Asana Partners, a retail real estate investment firm with more than $8 bil of neighborhood assets under management, acquired the 250.9k sf Huntington Beach shopping center from Barings at $601 per square foot. The center was 95.8% occupied at the time of sale.
Asana Partners also purchased Gateway Center, a 79k sf, neighborhood center in Mission Viejo, for $51 mil ($646/sf). These investments highlight a demand for internet-resistant, necessity-based retail (fitness, health, beauty, and personal services) with minimal e-commerce risk.
In Ventura County, Nuveen, the real estate investment arm of TIAA, purchased a 951.2k sf portfolio across four states for $298 mil. This deal included North Ranch Gateway in Thousand Oaks, an 86.7k sf community center priced at approximately $533 per square foot. The center is 100% leased and anchored by T.J. Maxx with a mix of national tenants, including Jersey Mike’s Subs, Bank of America, and Dunkin’.
In Los Angeles County, EDENS, a national owner, operator, and developer of open-air retail and mixed-use real estate, acquired Long Beach Exchange, a seven-building, 246k sf shopping center, from PGIM, the global asset management business of Prudential Financial, for $134.5 mil ($547/sf). The property was 99% occupied, featuring tenants such as Whole Foods, Ulta Beauty, Nordstrom Rack, T.J. Maxx, and Old Navy.
On the other side of the spectrum, private investors are active in the small-box space. In Los Angeles County, a private investor purchased a 300 sf service station at 10211 Alondra Blvd in Bellflower, occupied by 76. The sales price of $2.86 mil equates to $9.5k per square foot, representing the most expensive retail sale on a per-square-foot basis in LA County this quarter. Notably, the average size of retail buildings sold in Los Angeles County this quarter was 8.9k sf, down 51.4% quarter-over-quarter and 59.5% year-over-year.
Additionally, a private investor acquired a 702 sf restaurant building at 3801 Highland Ave in Manhattan Beach for an estimated $3.5 mil. Currently occupied by FISHBAR, the sale price reached $4,986 per square foot, marking it as the second most expensive retail sale on a per-square-foot basis this quarter for coastal LA County.
Market Fundamentals by Region:
Los Angeles County
Asking Rent: $2.90/sf NNN ▼ 3.3% YoY | ▲ 0.7% QoQ
Median Sale Price: $533/SF ▼ 0.8% YoY | ▼ 0.6% QoQ
Inland Empire
Asking Rent: $1.73/sf NNN ▼ 1.1% YoY | ▲ 1.8% QoQ
Median Sale Price: $531/SF ▲ 112.5% YoY | ▲ 40.9% QoQ
Orange County
Asking Rent: $2.50/sf NNN ▲ 1.6% YoY | ▲ 2.5% QoQ
Median Sale Price: $672/SF ▲ 28.0% YoY | ▲ 17.7% QoQ
Ventura County
Asking Rent: $2.20/sf NNN ▲ 1.9% YoY | ▲ 2.3% QoQ
Median Sale Price: $493/SF ▲ 98.1% YoY | ▲ 15.0% QoQ
Occupancy costs remain elevated despite broader economic shifts, though the pace of rent growth has stabilized. Orange County remains the tightest market with a 4.2% vacancy rate. Retail construction continues to focus on high-demand submarkets, though total square footage under construction has declined slightly as lenders maintain a disciplined approach. The Inland Empire continues to lead the region in new development with over 769k sf underway.
Investment activity shows a notable rebound. Sale prices are climbing quarter-over-quarter in nearly every market, suggesting that investors are looking past short-term volatility toward the long-term value of well-located Southern California retail assets. As interest rate policy and consumer spending habits continue to evolve, the retail sector is demonstrating resilience and regaining its momentum in 2026.
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