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12/02/25
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This report provided by real estate services firm NAI Capital Commercial
MARKET OVERVIEW
Ventura County’s multifamily market in Q3 2025 continued to evolve as shifting supply dynamics and moderating rent growth shaped operating fundamentals. Vacant units increased 21.0% quarter-over-quarter and 12.1% year-over-year, totaling 2,136 vacant units countywide. This pushed the countywide vacancy rate to 4.2%, up 70 basis points from last quarter and 30 basis points year-over-year, reflecting a market adjusting to new deliveries and uneven demand.
Construction activity slowed from last quarter but remains significant. Developers recorded 490 newly completed units in Q3, up sharply from 326 units in Q2, and 600% higher year-over-year. Year-to-date, 938 units have delivered, signaling sustained construction momentum even as lease-up times lengthen. Meanwhile, 1,411 units remain under construction, down 25.8% from Q2 and 43.1% from a year ago, suggesting a more measured development pipeline ahead.
Average asking rents declined 1.7% quarter-over-quarter to $2,642 per unit but remained 0.7% higher than a year ago, pointing to rent stabilization after several years of accelerated growth. This drop also marks the first quarterly pullback of the year, reflecting greater pricing sensitivity among renters and rising competition from newly completed units.
Sales activity rebounded meaningfully with $211.7 mil in closed transactions, a 310.6% increase quarter-over-quarter, although total year-to-date sales volume of $291.9 mil remains 46.4% lower year-over-year due to a slow first half of the year. Pricing trends were mixed: the average sale price per unit rose 21.1% quarter-over-quarter to $382,141, but declined 6.6% year-over-year. The average cap rate increased 40 basis points year-over-year to 5.9%, continuing its upward trajectory as investors adjust to financing costs.
A total of 552 units traded in Q3, up 238.7% quarter-over-quarter, though year-to-date transaction count remains down 48.2% from 2024. The average GRM compressed to 11.8%, returning closer to pre-pandemic norms.
Overall, Ventura County’s multifamily market reflects a mix of economic forces, including rising vacancy, moderating rents, strong quarterly sales activity, and continued construction deliveries, while the broader economic environment and borrowing costs continue to shape investor outlook.
TRENDS TO WATCH
The fundamentals of Ventura County’s multifamily sector appear stable but are adjusting gradually to economic headwinds, slower job growth, and the ongoing affordability gap between renting and homeownership. Higher mortgage rates remain an influential force, keeping many households in the rental market, but rent growth is softening as new supply comes online.
While completions surged, the sharp drop in under-construction units signals that developers are pulling back. Elevated financing costs, tighter lending standards, and slower rent growth will likely continue to restrain new starts.
Vacancy rose across both the North and South submarkets, each reaching 4.2% countywide. With nearly 1,000 units delivered year-to-date, lease-up competition is intensifying, placing downward pressure on rents and concessions.
Q3’s strong sales volume shows renewed investor confidence, yet higher cap rates and shifting pricing expectations continue to influence underwriting. Investors remain selective, particularly for value-add opportunities or properties with strong operational performance.
Notable recent transactions include:
• The Towbes Group, Inc sold 1241 Cypress Point Ln (Cypress Point) in Ventura, a 268-unit apartment complex, to Raintree Partners for $100 mil, or $373,134 per unit. The seller developed the property, which was completed in 1990. At the time of sale, the property was stabilized with an occupancy rate of 93.6 percent. The reported cap rate for the transaction was 4.69 percent. The buyer has value-add plans for the property.
• The Latigo Group sold 299 Thousand Oaks Blvd (Santal Thousand Oaks), a 142-unit apartment complex, to BlackRock Inc for $83 mil, or $584,507 per unit. The Latigo Group developed the property, which was completed in 2023.
• A Family Trust sold 2951–3011 Albany Dr (Woodcrest Apartments) in Oxnard, a 32-unit multifamily property, to a private investor for $6.97 mil, or $218,000 per unit.
Cap rates ticked up again as buyers adjust to prolonged elevated borrowing costs. With the Federal Reserve signaling the potential for gradual rate cuts, investor sentiment is improving, but underwriting remains conservative.
Ventura County’s multifamily market is expected to remain in a stabilizing phase through the next several quarters. As mortgage rates stay near multi-year highs and home prices continue to rise, rental housing demand will remain supported. However, rent growth is expected to stay modest, and vacancy is likely to rise further as new units continue to hit the market.
Developers and investors are approaching the market with measured optimism, anticipating improved capital markets conditions in 2026 while preparing for a near-term environment defined by slower absorption, rent stabilization, and greater competition among newer assets.
This update prepared by J.C. Casillas, Managing Director of Research at NAI Capital Commercial
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