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11/11/25
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This report provided by real estate services firm NAI Capital Commercial
MARKET OVERVIEW
In Q3 2025, Ventura County's industrial market showed signs of softening resilience under slowing economic demand driven by elevated financing and construction costs. The overall vacancy rate remained low at 2.9%, representing 1.48 msf, while total available industrial space surged 36.0% quarter-over-quarter to 2.82 msf, equivalent to a 5.6% availability rate. This sudden increase in availability signals a market downshift.
Demand declined significantly during the quarter, with negative net absorption of 186.7k sf, bringing year-to-date absorption into negative territory at 234.2k sf. Sublease availability, meanwhile, fell sharply by 32.2% to 210k sf, indicating some quick occupancy of discounted space. Despite this quarterly drop, sublease levels remain elevated by 31.4% year-over-year, highlighting tenants’ continued preference for value and subleasing excess space.
New construction stayed limited, with no new completions in Q3 and only 185.7k sf completed year-to-date. Developers continue to favor pre-leased and build-to-suit projects over speculative construction, reflecting cautious confidence in the current market.
Average asking rents edged down slightly to $1.06 per square foot triple net, a 3.6% decline from the previous quarter and a modest 0.9% decrease year-over-year. This adjustment, coupled with a 33.9% drop in quarterly leasing volume, suggests landlords are moderating rates to incentivize tenant activity.
Sale activity, however, demonstrated robust resilience. Total sales volume rose 0.9% quarter-over-quarter, and year-to-date sales volume increased 72.9% to 506.4k sf compared with the same period last year. Transaction dollar volume more than doubled year-over-year, reflecting strong investor appetite for quality industrial assets despite high interest rates. The average sale price rose 6.2% year-over-year to $173 per square foot, underscoring sustained long-term demand for quality assets in a loosening market.
TRENDS TO WATCH
The industrial market continues to favor tenants and buyers seeking quality, well-located space, as stabilizing sublease availability and limited speculative construction keep vacancy rates relatively low. Although rising interest rates continue to weigh on sales volume, the scarcity of modern warehouse-distribution facilities has helped sustain rent and sale price stability across the region.
In Central Ventura, vacancy inched up to 3.8%, driven by negative net absorption of 37.5k sf. Leasing activity remained healthy at 124.9k sf for the quarter, with total sales reaching $8.45 mil. In North Ventura, leasing activity remained robust, with 221.9k sf leased year-to-date, while the vacancy rate dropped to 2.4%—the lowest in Ventura County. Net absorption registered a positive 92.1k sf during the quarter, making it the only submarket to record positive absorption year-to-date. Sales volume totaled $14.2 mil, nearly doubling from the prior quarter. West Ventura, the largest submarket, reported a 100-basis-point increase in vacancy quarter-over-quarter to 2.7%, resulting in negative net absorption of 241.4k sf—the largest decline in the region. Despite this, leasing activity remained strong, totaling 500.8k sf year-to-date, while sales volume rose modestly to $33.8 mil.
With leasing activity largely driven by renewals and construction remaining limited, Ventura County’s industrial market appears poised for gradual stabilization through the remainder of 2025, particularly in transportation corridors with strong demand for last-mile distribution and modern industrial space.
This report prepared by J.C. Casillas, Managing Director, Research, NAI Capital Commercial
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