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4/28/22
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This report was provided by real estate services firm JLL
Industrial market conditions across San Diego remained largely unchanged in Q1, as overwhelming tenant demand continued to outpace existing and new supply. Currently, the only remaining spaces larger than 50k sf are in the North and South County clusters. Competition for large blocks has prompted developers to increase the number of speculative projects in the market. Some notable new projects include phase one of Majestic Realty’s Sunroad Logistics Center, Cabot Properties’ Otay II Commerce Center and Hamann’s Saint Andrews Otay Mesa Center. Nearly 600k sf were pre-leased upon completion.
Industrial move-ins on the quarter were most concentrated in Otay Mesa, where 769.2k sf of industrial product were occupied. Occupiers have focused on this region due to strategic infrastructure and availability of new product. Access to Mexico and the presence of a free-trade zone has attracted e-commerce, logistics, customhouse brokerages, and manufacturing to this submarket. In Q1 2022, logistics companies accounted for over half of the positive absorption in Otay Mesa.
From a supply standpoint, there is currently 2.4 msf under construction, nearly half of which is already spoken for. This strong pre-leasing rate, coupled with a vacancy rate of 1.8%, has allowed landlords to push rents aggressively. Rates grew 13.3% quarter-over-quarter, and now sit 20.2% higher than a year ago. For the first time, all five clusters now have average direct asking rents above $1.00 NNN.
Outlook
Despite a strong development pipeline, developers will still struggle to keep up with demand. Material shortages, availability of construction labor and land constraints all present additional challenges to developers trying to meet tenants’ needs. Additionally, there continues to be a robust roster of tenants actively looking for space, which will further constrain availability. This should all continue to put upward pressure on rental rates across San Diego in the near-term.
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